- The Rollup
- Rollup #90
Tallying investing results from 2023
The main story 📰
This is an investing newsletter and I manage my own money. So what was 2023 like for me? Briefly, I had a few winners and losers.
My position in $RIG (Transocean LTD), an offshore drilling rig company based out of Switzerland, did quite well. Up 79% for the year.
My position in $SRUUF (Sprott Physical Uranium Trust) was also a big winner. It finished the year up 75%.
My largest position was in two year notes and the truth is, I invested way too early. I am of the belief that 5% is not the new normal for interest rates. I think we’re going lower again. Unfortunately I bought into this position about ~8 months too soon. That’s frustrating, but the silver lining is that I’ve been earning ~4% the whole time.
My biggest failure was trying to play with options. I bought NVIDIA puts and some SPY puts that both turned into worthless stardust. Definitely a mistake, but a well-managed mistake as I only spent a small piece of my net worth on them. From here on out, no more options!!! This was my biggest lesson of 2023.
Do you have a short investing/trading story you want to share? It can be a big win, a painful loss, something funny that happened to you or an important lesson you learned.
If you share your story I’ll feature some of the most interesting ones in the Rollup in the next few weeks (like I just shared mine above). I’ll also include a link to your Twitter handle/website, or you can remain anonymous.
If you’d like to share please just click one of these links below 👇 It will take you to a page where you can leave “additional feedback.” Be sure to include a link to your Twitter handle/website if you want me to share that too.
Finally: I have no idea how many people will share their stories. There could be 2 or 20 submissions, so I can’t guarantee that I’ll be able to share everyone’s story. I’ll do my best though.
What's your investment story from 2023?
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Worth checking out 🔍
John Hussman’s latest note is out, including his predictions for the market in 2024.
SpaceX launched 98 rockets in 2023, a new record.
Why 2024 will be good — and possibly great — for investors.
Author Ryan Holiday explains how to have better habits in 2024.
You can use this website to find out how many videos there are on YouTube, median number of views, most popular languages, etc.
10 market predictions for 2024, from Michael Batnick.
Up to 30-40% of all online reviews are fake, according to the U.S. Public Interest Research Group.
Noteworthy Chart 🧭
German home prices are in free fall
Best articles 📖
Global Family Office Report - This is a free research report from UBS, which they claim is the largest family office report in the world. It’s a compilation of family office managers are investing in, what they think the biggest risks for 2024 are, and the biggest opportunities moving forward. Here’s one of the more interesting charts from the report.
The Revenge Of The Ottoman Empire - A long article from Louis-Vincent Gave about the reorganization of trade routes. Specifically, how American onshoring from China, and sanctions against Russia, are causing these two exporting powerhouses to increase their trade with EM countries.
The Joy of Being Idle - A short reminder to enjoy your life. It’s about more than money. Or the way I like to think about it, the point is to earn enough money to allow you to do the things you love.
If you get to the point where you’re earning money for money’s sake, I don’t think you’re necessarily going to compound your happiness. The wealthiest man I know is worth several hundred million dollars. Every time we meet I’m reminded that he’s not obviously any happier than I am, despite my net worth being so much less.
Go enjoy life!
Noteworthy Tweet 🪶
I'm convinced the FIRE movement is a gimmick.
It operates under the assumption that life should be lived in 2 distinct buckets:
1. Accumulation: Work hard and pinch pennies.
2. Enjoyment (sort of): 'Retire' and live a frugal life.
To me, that's backward.
Continually delaying… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Justin Welsh (@thejustinwelsh)
Jan 2, 2024
Best of YouTube 🎬
What Happens To The Real Estate Market When All The Boomers... Die?
The title is rather morbid but I learned something from this video: private equity is buying up nursing/retirement homes because they’re apparently a great investment. The average annual cost now exceeding $60,000 to live at one of these places.
That was the first part of the video. In part two we learn why real estate prices probably aren’t going to come down much, even as the boomers age out.
2024 Macro Outlook Not Rosy - Expert Felix Zulauf Explains
Felix Zulauf shares his market outlook for 2024. He’s not bullish… But here’s the thing, he wasn’t bullish at the start of 2023 either! I distinctly remember watching interviews with him predicting a prolonged bear market that never ended up materializing.
So take it all with a grain of salt, I guess. I like the guy, I enjoy listening to him speak, hell I’d even trust him to manage my money. But his recent track record isn’t perfect.
My favorite off topic video 🍿
Classic Monty Python: the funniest joke in the world is so good that it can kill you ☠️
What else to read (sponsored) 📕
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Beholden to dreams
👋 Do you like this newsletter? In addition to the Rollup I also write a long form article each week on Substack. I write about investing, the strange state of our society, plus lots of interesting book reviews.
I also just launched a new section in which I cover three (or more) interesting things I’ve read. In my first edition I review a book about a deadly mountaineering disaster on K2, an article about globalization, and a funny Soviet anecdote from Ronald Reagan 👇